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Premier League title: Will Manchester City or Arsenal win?

Last updated on .From the section Premier Leaguecomments949

Pep Guardiola waving
Pep Guardiola has won the Premier League five times with Manchester City

Two teams. One day. One trophy.

The Premier League title race is going down to the final day for just the 10th time. But will it be Manchester City or Arsenal fans celebrating on Sunday?

Manchester City are two points clear at the top and would be the first side to win four consecutive top-flight titles if they beat West Ham at home on Sunday, 19 May (16:00 BST)

But if City fail to win Arsenal will lift the title if they beat Everton at the same time at Emirates Stadium.

Anything other than an Arsenal win will hand City the title. The Gunners are the underdogs - no team has come from second to win the Premier League title on the final day.

Premier League
TeamPlayedPointsGDGSForm (past 5 games)
1. Man City37886093WWWWW
2. Arsenal37866189WWWWW
If teams are level after 38 games, the title will be decided on goal difference and, if still level, goals scored

What do the stats say about Arsenal's chances?

According to Opta,external-link Arsenal's chances of winning the Premier League stand at just 16% while City remain favourites on 84%.

The Gunners would have had an 81% chance of winning the title if City had lost to Tottenham on Tuesday - and a 75% chance if that match had ended in a draw.

Simon Gleave, head of analysis at Nielsen's Gracenote, gives Manchester City an 83.5% chance of lifting the title to Arsenal's 16.5%.

Before Manchester City's 2-0 win over Tottenham, City had a 60% chance to Arsenal's 40%.

What if the teams finish level on points?

Should there be a tie, the league is decided on goal difference, then goals scored, then most points in head-to-head matches, then most away goals in the head-to-head record.

Arsenal have the better goal difference on 61 compared to City's 60.

If the two teams were to finish level, City would have to draw - meaning their goal difference would stay the same, and Arsenal would have to win - increasing their already superior tally.

Whatever happens, do not be too surprised if there are more twists and turns on the final day of the season.

How did it all unfold last year?

Graph showing how the 2022-23 Premier League title race unfolded
Three draws in a row in April 2023 cost Arsenal momentum as Manchester City won last season's title, with the Gunners' probability of being champions nosediving
Everything you need to know about your Premier League team bannerBBC Sport banner footer

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949 comments

  • Comment posted by D1714688471424, at 21:30 10 Mar

    As a lifelong Chelsea fan and someone who loves football,despite the rivalry where not much love is lost in the rivalry I can only applaud&appreciate the level that Arsenal,Lpool,M City,have been this season,with 3 clubs going eyeball to eyeball in this football brinkmanship,this sort of thing may not happen again for a long time..

    • Reply posted by mark, at 01:29 11 Mar

      mark replied:
      Well said Mark.
      Spoken like a true football fan.
      Guess there's a few of us left then.

  • Comment posted by invincible 49, at 19:56 10 Mar

    If Arsenal manage to beat City away, then all the remaining fixtures seem much less ominous. That game will be massive for all three teams.

    Spurs, Villa and Brighton will have a big say in who finishes top.

    • Reply posted by whatcanisay, at 20:51 10 Mar

      whatcanisay replied:
      They all have to play Spurs

  • Comment posted by United States of Whatever, at 19:54 10 Mar

    Nobody will win it with 10 games to go.
    Best wait and see.

    • Reply posted by Gandalf, at 20:16 10 Mar

      Gandalf replied:
      Indeed. I appreciate that it’s a very exciting run-in but there was an almost identical article already this week. Do we really need more?

  • Comment posted by nightprowler, at 21:15 10 Mar

    I think the team with the most points will win

    • Reply posted by mark, at 01:28 11 Mar

      mark replied:
      That's rather astute,

  • Comment posted by Markyp1965, at 20:14 10 Mar

    It’s ridiculous to think that the computer simulations only give Arsenal such a small chance of winning the title. Yes, of course it’s going to be tough, and even as a Gooner, I have to agree that Man City would rightly be considered the favourites. However, it’s almost as if things such as current form and momentum, are not being considered.
    Would be great to see Arsenal silence the doubters.

    • Reply posted by Christoph_erson, at 20:20 10 Mar

      Christoph_erson replied:
      No.

      *Spurs fan

  • Comment posted by How on Earth, at 20:15 10 Mar

    Love it no one has a clue … however one of the teams has beaten the other other 2 … fact

    • Reply posted by mark, at 01:25 11 Mar

      mark replied:
      It's a two horse race between Liverpool and Manchester City!
      Not a supporter of either so I can just forward to the next 10 games!

  • Comment posted by brittennisfan, at 20:58 10 Mar

    Oh enough about Liverpool "slipping" in 2014. They were 4th at the end of January and to win the title from there would have had to win 13 of their last 14 matches. As it was, they "only" managed to win 12 out of 14 and for some reason are ridiculed. They should never have been in the mix at all and going on an 11 match winning streak at that time was almost unheard of. Lazy journalism.

    • Reply posted by Baybars, at 23:10 10 Mar

      Baybars replied:
      No, they bottled it.

  • Comment posted by D1710887022625, at 20:48 10 Mar

    Hahaha Liverpool and Arsenal could potentially slip up versus MUFC... yeah right, we scraped past 16th placed Everton thanks to their finishing and a coupla penalties...

    • Reply posted by Dizzo88, at 21:19 10 Mar

      Dizzo88 replied:
      😂😂😂

  • Comment posted by wingate1, at 19:44 10 Mar

    When City get their 10 point deduction it will be a two horse race

    • Reply posted by footie fan, at 19:48 10 Mar

      footie fan replied:
      10 points? They will end up being relegated to one of the local Manchester leagues if they are found guilty of the 115 charges that have been issued against them.

  • Comment posted by kickabout, at 21:45 10 Mar

    It would be great if the title was won buy a club that isn’t a sportswashing project, has a staggering amount of charges against them and throws money around like confetti to get what they want.

    • Reply posted by Bless-um, at 23:57 10 Mar

      Bless-um replied:
      Just like Chelski, and Man U£d too.

  • Comment posted by conradk, at 20:30 10 Mar

    Why not start predicting the winner of the 56/57 season, it’s just as relevant.
    With 30 points still to play for, and any possible number of scenarios that could happen, this is utterly worthless.

  • Comment posted by D1711473059080, at 20:10 10 Mar

    Gracenote don't like Arsenal

    45% chance of a win at Brighton. Pardon ?
    39% chance at Tottenham. Pardon ?
    38% chance at Man U. Pardon ?

    • Reply posted by Lawrence Howard, at 20:20 10 Mar

      Lawrence Howard replied:
      2 wins at Old Trafford in 22 years, Tottenham decent record at home to Arsenal & difficult to beat, history does mean something.

  • Comment posted by Clubber Lang, at 19:39 10 Mar

    Whoever wins, it will be a season to remember!

    • Reply posted by nicholas, at 21:25 10 Mar

      nicholas replied:
      Not for Erik Ten Hag.

  • Comment posted by Pierre Blaise, at 20:58 10 Mar

    This analysis is not scientific, and only based on old form. Many constants like poor officiating, injuries to key players have all been ignored. These statistics were made baseless by Leicester. City were lucky today, any other day they lose today's game

    • Reply posted by Artsol70, at 22:55 10 Mar

      Artsol70 replied:
      But in a 38 game season you need to be lucky in some games...that does not mean you cant up your game in the next fixture....this same Liverpool were battered by Arsenal not too long ago...Let's see what happens at etihad in the next game...if Arsenal beat City then i will give them the title but a lot of tricky games ahead

  • Comment posted by Blackhawk87, at 00:38 11 Mar

    The prediction analyst needs to get another job. If he thinks Manchester United will cause Liverpool or Arsenal problems then think again. I'm a United fan and yesterday Everton had twenty shots on target and if Salah or Saka were in Everton's side they would have destroyed us. Our midfield is weak and frail and lacks intelligence.

    • Reply posted by Eye_Said, at 12:56 11 Mar

      Eye_Said replied:
      As a City fan I do think you are right, but United are dangerous on the counter. They just need to have a perfect day and Arsenal/Liverpool to have a bad one. Very very unlikely, but not impossible.

  • Comment posted by Alex Mufti, at 20:48 10 Mar

    Don’t think it will be City. They got no legs in midfield. Rodri can’t do everything

    • Reply posted by Sirrantsalot, at 12:52 11 Mar

      Sirrantsalot replied:
      They have virtually the same team as last year, when they won everything.

  • Comment posted by D1713714349217, at 20:22 10 Mar

    Hungerford Town!!! 🤞🏻

    • Reply posted by D1714717747363, at 20:38 10 Mar

      D1714717747363 replied:
      Thatcham surely?

  • Comment posted by Noodlebug, at 20:27 10 Mar

    If Arsenal beat City next game, they've got to be the favourites. They're not just beating all-comers, they are winning comfortably.

    Liverpool have shown tenacity but are dependent on so many last-gasp winners and fortunate decisions, that when they DON'T get them like today, they seem bemused.

    City are not their usual fluent best but even at 70% they are well capable of winning a title.

    • Reply posted by Runnerboy27, at 21:22 10 Mar

      Runnerboy27 replied:
      Fortunate decisions like Diaz goal against Spurs and an unpunished kung fu kick. Something tells me you were trying to be objective but couldn’t but help on Liverpool

  • Comment posted by Ribzz, at 20:46 10 Mar

    ABCDEF- Arsenal beating City doing everyone favour

    • Reply posted by Mythosmaniac, at 21:19 10 Mar

      Mythosmaniac replied:
      ABCDEF - Arsenal beaten City dominating English football 31/03/24

  • Comment posted by deano123, at 20:44 10 Mar

    ABC - Anyone But City

    • Reply posted by kingkladze, at 20:46 10 Mar

      kingkladze replied:
      Champions again ole ole

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